Brexit: smooth negotiations to come over coming months and years? - Nomura

Analysis General

Published: 2/19/2018 3:15:00 PM

Analysts at Nomura are leaning bullish regarding Brexit talks.

Key Quotes:

"The key takeaway for us is that the conditions are just about as good for the UK as they could possibly be."

"We have long argued that from the UK’s perspective, the best backdrop for Brexit talks would be a strong EU economy (outperforming the UK ideally) and a forward-focused pro-European sentiment re-emerging."

"This is the exact backdrop we find." 

"This does not guarantee a smooth set of negotiations over coming months and years, but it makes it more likely."

"We think the EU has every reason to be generous and to put economic interests ahead of political interests – where quite frankly it doesn’t need to worry. We think the trade talks, when we get onto them, will be tough, difficult and may have moments that cause markets to be concerned."

"But the UK has, by chance, found itself operating against the best possible backdrop to give it a chance of a decent deal."

"We will see over Apr-Oct 2018 whether the UK government takes that opportunity."

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