AUD/USD clings to daily gains but lacks follow-through

Analysis General

Published: 2/19/2018 7:29:00 AM

   •  Subdued USD demand supportive of the uptick. 

   •  Weaker commodity/risk sentiment seemed to cap. 

   •  Tuesday’s RBA minutes eyed for fresh impetus. 

The AUD/USD pair maintained its bid tone through the mid-European session and is currently placed near the top end of its daily trading range. 

The pair's modest retracement from Asian session tops stalled ahead of the 0.7900 handle, with bulls trying to regain control amid a subdued US Dollar price action. 

Meanwhile, a combination of factors, ranging from weaker commodity prices and a mildly softer tone around European equity markets, were now seen capping any further gains for the commodity-linked/perceived riskier Australian Dollar. 

Moreover, holiday-thinned liquidity conditions also seem to hold investors back from placing any aggressive bets and might further contribute towards keeping a lid ahead of this week's important event risks, starting with the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday. 

Investors will also confront the latest FOMC meeting minutes, which might influence Fed rate hike expectations and eventually provide some fresh directional impetus for higher-yielding currencies - like the Aussie. 

Technical levels to watch

Any subsequent up-move is likely to confront resistance near 0.7945 horizontal level, above which the pair is likely to dart towards reclaiming the key 0.80 psychological mark. On the flip side, weakness below the 0.7900 handle is likely to accelerate the fall towards 0.7860 level en-route 100-day SMA support near the 0.7825-20 region.

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