EUR/USD seen at 1.28 in 12-month – Danske Bank

Analysis General

Published: 2/19/2018 7:11:00 AM

Chief Analyst at Danske Bank Christin Tuxen believes the pair could climb towards the 1.28 handle within a year’s view.

Key Quotes

“Until early February this year has been about a continued EUR rebound on ECB, and USD weakness driven by a shift in the US policy mix (widening deficit, reluctant-to-hike Fed). The US-driven reflation story may have changed this temporarily, which could halt the uptick in EUR/USD near term where we see the pair staying broadly within the 1.21-1.26 range (see next page). Our medium-term story remains unchanged though: a turn in the capital tide from USD to EUR is brewing as the relative attractiveness of EU versus US assets is on the rise. Along with valuation, this is set to support EUR/USD in 6-12M”.

“We have kept our 12M forecast unchanged at 1.28 but lift our near term profile to 1.23 in 3M (previously1.19) and 1.25 in 6M (previously 1.23 while we target 1.22 in 1M”.

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