USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

Analysis General

Published: 5/30/2015 4:37:00 AM

The rebound from 1.1919 extended higher last week but lost some momentum after hitting 1.2538. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.2834 is completed at 1.1919, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Thus, we'd expect consolidation to be contained by 1.2304 minor support and bring another rise. Above 1.2538 will target 1.2834 resistance.

In the bigger picture, the structure of the price actions from 1.2834 so far suggests that it's a corrective pattern only. Hence, we'd be expecting resuming of larger up trend from 0.9406 later when the correction completes. Such up trend should target 1.3063 key resistance and above and we'd stay to be cautious on topping there again. Meanwhile, below 1.1919 will extend the fall from 1.2834 to long term fibonacci level of 38.2% retracement of 0.9633 to 1.2834 at 1.1611.

In the longer term picture, we're still viewing that price actions from 0.9056 (2007 low) are developing into a long term consolidation pattern. Thus, we'd be cautious on strong resistance around 61.8% retracement of 1.6196 (2002 high) to 0.9056 (2007 low) at 1.3469 to limit upside and bring reversal. Nonetheless, sustained break there would pave the way back to 1.6196 high in medium to long term.

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